When the clocks go back, Toronto's break-ins move into the dark
We compared the three weeks before and after every clock change from 2014 to 2025. In Toronto, home break-ins between 5 and 7pm jump in the weeks after the clocks go back, while the total barely moves. In spring, the same evening hours get quieter. The evening peak follows sunset.
Published October 31, 2026. The clocks go back on Sunday, November 1.
The 24-hour clock, before and after
Each shape shows the share of break-ins in each hour of the day. The dashed grey shape is the three weeks before the change, the orange shape the three weeks after. Dark blue is night, and the ticks on the rim mark sunset before and after. Hover or tap an hour.
Hover or tap an hour on the clock to compare it.
It happens almost every year
Each dot is one year's result: how much the evening hours changed after the clock change, relative to the other hours. Above the dashed line means the evening got busier.
All four tests
The test compares the evening hours with daytime and late-evening hours, whose light does not change, in the same weeks. That cancels out the general rise in break-ins as autumn goes on. The fake-date test repeats it four weeks away from any clock change, where no effect should appear.
| City and change | Evening hours | Before | After | Change relative to other hours (95% range) | Fake date, 4 weeks off |
|---|
Why Chicago looks different
Chicago's home burglaries are spread through the day, with the most around 8am and noon, and no evening peak to move. The clock change makes no clear difference there: the results sit within the range chance would produce. Toronto's break-ins have a distinct early-evening peak, and that peak moves with sunset each time the clocks change. The two cities record and time incidents differently, so we compare the patterns, not the totals.
What to do this week
- Move your light timers an hour earlier. A timer set for 6pm in October switches on after dark in November.
- Check outdoor lights and cameras at 5pm, not 6pm. The first weeks after the change are when evening break-ins shift earlier.
- Lock up before you leave for the evening. Coming home after dark to a house left dark is the pattern this data shows.
Data and citation
MkaeSense. (2026). When the clocks go back, Toronto's break-ins move into the dark: a study of clock changes, 2014–2025. https://mkaesense.com/pages/clocks-go-back-break-ins
Free to reuse with credit to MkaeSense and a link to this page (CC BY 4.0).
Method and limits
- Data. Toronto Police Service, Major Crime Indicators open data: break and enter at houses and apartments, each incident counted once, by the hour it occurred. City of Chicago, Crimes 2001 to Present: burglaries at residential locations.
- Windows. 21 days before and 21 days after each change: the first Sunday of November and the second Sunday of March, 2014 to 2025. Both cities change their clocks on the same dates.
- Hours compared. Evening hours that switch between light and dark: 5 to 7pm after the fall change, 6 to 8pm after the spring change. Comparison hours: 9am to 5pm and 8pm to midnight, which stay light or stay dark. Early morning hours, which change the other way, are left out.
- Test. The change in the evening hours divided by the change in the comparison hours, with a 95% range from a Poisson model. The fake-date test moves the change four weeks earlier in fall and four weeks later in spring.
- Limits. Many break-in times are estimates, because people find out when they get home. Only reported break-ins are counted. This shows when break-ins are recorded as happening, not that the clock change causes more of them: across all hours, the totals barely changed.
All calculations are by MkaeSense. MkaeSense is not affiliated with Toronto Police Service or the City of Chicago.